Risk, Trade, Recovery and the Consideration of Real Options: The Imperative Coordination of Policy, Marketing, and Finance in the Wake of Catastrophe

Recovery from societal and market catastrophe is a daunting process requiring multi-function, systemic, and long-term efforts. Humanitarian aid and donor assistance rarely are sufficient. Trade and other forms of direct investment in devastated markets offer another kind of recovery-assistance. Risks encountered in recovering economies however can deter firms wishing to invest. A real options framework is applied to examine the financial feasibility of trading with recovering economies; the framework is applied to the countries of the war-disintegrated, former Yugoslavia. The real options framework considers the value of managerial flexibility in the presence of risks. Implications for policy, marketing management and export development, and ultimately economic and societal recovery in a number of contexts are discussed.