TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting Invasiveness of Species in Trade: Climate Match, Trophic Guild and Fecundity Influence Establishment and Impact of Non-Native Freshwater Fishes
AU - Howeth, Jennifer G.
AU - Gantz, Crysta A.
AU - Angermeier, Paul L.
AU - Frimpong, Emmanuel A.
AU - Hoff, Michael H.
AU - Keller, Reuben P.
AU - Mandrak, Nicholas E.
AU - Marchetti, Michael
AU - Olden, Julian D.
AU - Romagosa, Christina M.
AU - Lodge, David M.
N1 - Biodiversity Research Corresponding author Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, USA Correspondence: Jennifer G. Howeth, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Search for more papers by this author Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA U.
PY - 2016/1/1
Y1 - 2016/1/1
N2 - Aim Impacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions. Location Laurentian Great Lakes region. Methods Trait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models. Results Climate match between a species’ native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75–81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75–83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes. Main conclusions Our models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers prioritize efforts among species and pathways to minimize such risk. Similar approaches could be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic regions.
AB - Aim Impacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions. Location Laurentian Great Lakes region. Methods Trait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models. Results Climate match between a species’ native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75–81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75–83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes. Main conclusions Our models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers prioritize efforts among species and pathways to minimize such risk. Similar approaches could be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic regions.
KW - Aquarium
KW - biological invasions
KW - classification tree
KW - ecological impact
KW - establishment success
KW - exotic species
KW - Laurentian Great Lakes
KW - live food
KW - risk assessment
KW - water garden
UR - https://digitalcommons.stmarys-ca.edu/school-science-faculty-works/17
UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12391
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12391/abstract
U2 - 10.1111/ddi.12391
DO - 10.1111/ddi.12391
M3 - Article
VL - 22
JO - School of Science Faculty Works
JF - School of Science Faculty Works
IS - 2
ER -