Position Paper On Diagnostic Uncertainty Estimation from Large Language Models: Next-Word Probability Is Not Pre-test Probability

Yanjun Gao; Skatje Myers; Shan Chen; Dmitriy Dligach; Timothy Miller; Danielle S. Bitterman; Guanhua Chen; Anoop Mayampurath; Matthew M. Churpek; Majid Afshar

Position Paper On Diagnostic Uncertainty Estimation from Large Language Models: Next-Word Probability Is Not Pre-test Probability

Yanjun Gao
, Skatje Myers
, Shan Chen
, Dmitriy Dligach
, Timothy Miller
, Danielle S. Bitterman
, Guanhua Chen
, Anoop Mayampurath
, Matthew M. Churpek
, Majid Afshar

Department of Computer Science

University of Wisconsin
University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health
University of Wisconsin-Madison
University of Colorado School of Medicine
University of Colorado
Brigham and Women's Hospital
Harvard Medical School
Boston Children's Hospital
Harvard University
Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
University of Chicago
Stritch School of Medicine
Loyola University of Chicago
Loyola University Medical Center

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

Original language	American English
State	Published - Dec 2024
Event	NeurIPS 2024 Workshop - Vancouver, Canada Duration: Dec 1 2024 → …

Conference

Conference	NeurIPS 2024 Workshop
Country/Territory	Canada
City	Vancouver
Period	12/1/24 → …

Cite this

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title = "Position Paper On Diagnostic Uncertainty Estimation from Large Language Models: Next-Word Probability Is Not Pre-test Probability",

author = "Yanjun Gao and Skatje Myers and Shan Chen and Dmitriy Dligach and Timothy Miller and Bitterman, \{Danielle S.\} and Guanhua Chen and Anoop Mayampurath and Churpek, \{Matthew M.\} and Majid Afshar",

year = "2024",

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language = "American English",

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TY - CONF

T1 - Position Paper On Diagnostic Uncertainty Estimation from Large Language Models: Next-Word Probability Is Not Pre-test Probability

AU - Gao, Yanjun

AU - Myers, Skatje

AU - Chen, Shan

AU - Dligach, Dmitriy

AU - Miller, Timothy

AU - Bitterman, Danielle S.

AU - Chen, Guanhua

AU - Mayampurath, Anoop

AU - Churpek, Matthew M.

AU - Afshar, Majid

PY - 2024/12

Y1 - 2024/12

M3 - Paper

T2 - NeurIPS 2024 Workshop

Y2 - 1 December 2024

ER -