Evolution of Entrepreneurial Judgment With Venture-Specific Experience

This study advances research on entrepreneurial cognition by investigating how entrepreneurial judgment evolves during new venture creation. We conceptualize entrepreneurial judgment as a cognitive process in the minds of entrepreneurs that operates on the causal map – i.e., a knowledge structure concerning what factors they believe will help the chances of profitability under uncertainty. At the time of initial epiphany, entrepreneurs construct a cognitive causal map which guides resource allocation decisions. Over time, venture-specific experience accumulates and entrepreneurial judgment evolves in response to their observations. Using a dataset of 524 nascent entrepreneurs, we find that entrepreneurs with more venturespecific experiences have more selective judgments, and have stronger conviction in those judgments. We also find that perceived uncertainty and cognitive dispositions of the individuals affect entrepreneurial judgment.